The Sun has released a significant X-class flare, accompanied by a massive coronal mass ejection (CME) that is rapidly approaching Earth, with a potential impact expected within the next 24 hours.
Aurora alert! A massive solar storm could affect us and create stunning northern lights.
This week, the sun has become very active, releasing a strong X-class solar flare along with a fast-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) aimed at Earth, expected to arrive within the next 24 hours.
If the CME hits as predicted and has the right magnetic orientation to be 'geoeffective,' we might see strong (G3) or even severe (G4) geomagnetic storm conditions tonight, according to the U.K. Met Office. If these conditions occur, the northern lights could be visible as far south as Northern California and Alabama.
Space weather experts are currently analyzing data and running models to refine the arrival time of the CME.
Why the CME's effect relies on its magnetic orientation
CME arrivals are notoriously hard to predict. Their speed, travel direction, and — most importantly — their magnetic orientation all influence how strongly (if at all) they will interact with Earth's magnetic field.
If the CME's magnetic field is oriented southward, a component called the Bz, it can more easily connect with Earth's northward-pointing magnetic field, allowing energy to flow into our planet's magnetosphere and trigger geomagnetic storm conditions.
If the Bz is oriented northward instead, Earth's magnetic field mostly deflects the incoming energy, effectively 'closing the door,' and what seemed like a promising space weather event can turn out to be a bit of a disappointment.
Some CMEs have a mix of southward and northward magnetic fields, which can cause fluctuating geomagnetic activity. These events keep space weather forecasters and aurora enthusiasts very alert.
We won't know the CME's actual magnetic orientation until it gets much closer to Earth, when it will be directly measured by solar wind monitoring spacecraft like DSCOVR and ACE.
What is an X-class solar flare?
Solar flares are categorized by strength from A, B, C, and M to X, with each letter signifying a tenfold increase in power. X-class flares are the most intense eruptions, and the number after the X shows the strength of the event. Today's flare was recorded at X1.9, placing it among the strongest solar outbursts.
The intense flare from sunspot region AR4341 reached its peak at 1:09 p.m. EST (1809 GMT), as reported by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. This eruption caused strong (R3) radio blackouts on the sunlit side of Earth, with the worst disruptions mainly affecting the Americas.
What is a CME and how does it impact Earth?
A CME, or coronal mass ejection, is a large release of plasma from the sun that carries a magnetic field. When a CME collides with Earth's magnetosphere — the protective magnetic field created by our planet — it can lead to a geomagnetic storm.
These geomagnetic storms differ in strength and are rated from minor (G1) to extreme (G5). Current predictions from the U.K. Met Office indicate that the incoming CME may cause strong (G3) to severe (G4) geomagnetic storm conditions.
Storms of this level can interfere with satellite functions, impair GPS navigation, and increase atmospheric drag on spacecraft. They can also enhance auroral activity, potentially bringing the northern lights further south into mid-latitude areas around 45° latitude.
