Currently, the conflict between Israel and Iran appears to be confined to these two nations. There have been extensive calls for restraint at the United Nations and in various other forums.
However, what if these appeals go unheeded? What if the conflict intensifies and spreads?
Here are several potential worst-case scenarios.
The United States becomes involved
Despite the US's denials, Iran evidently perceives that American forces have endorsed and at least implicitly supported Israel's military actions.
Iran could target US installations throughout the Middle East, including special forces bases in Iraq, military facilities in the Gulf, and diplomatic missions in the area. Although Iran's proxy groups, Hamas and Hezbollah, may be significantly weakened, its allied militias in Iraq remain well-armed and operational.
The US has been concerned about the possibility of such attacks and has consequently withdrawn some personnel. In its public statements, the US has firmly cautioned Iran about the repercussions of any assault on American interests.
What could occur if an American citizen were to be killed, for instance, in Tel Aviv or another location?
Donald Trump might find himself compelled to take action. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long faced accusations of seeking to involve the US in efforts to defeat Iran.
Military experts assert that only the US possesses the bombers and bunker-busting munitions capable of penetrating the most fortified Iranian nuclear sites, particularly Fordow.
Trump assured his MAGA supporters that he would refrain from initiating any so-called "forever wars" in the Middle East. Nevertheless, many Republicans back both the Israeli government and its perspective that now is the opportune moment to pursue regime change in Tehran.
However, should America become an active participant in combat, it would signify a significant escalation with potentially severe and lasting consequences.
Gulf nations become involved
If Iran is unable to inflict damage on Israel's well-defended military and other strategic targets, it may choose to direct its missiles towards softer targets in the Gulf, particularly nations that Iran believes have supported its adversaries over the years.
The region is home to numerous energy and infrastructure objectives. It is important to recall that in 2019, Iran was accused of attacking Saudi Arabia's oil fields, and in 2022, its Houthi proxies targeted locations in the UAE.
Since that time, there has been a form of reconciliation between Iran and several nations in the area.
However, these nations host US airbases. Some have also, albeit discreetly, assisted in defending Israel from Iranian missile strikes last year.
Should the Gulf come under attack, it too might request American warplanes for its defense, in addition to Israel's.
Israel's failure to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities raises several questions. What if the Israeli offensive does not succeed? What if Iran's nuclear sites are too deeply entrenched and well-protected? What if the 400kg of 60% enriched uranium – the nuclear material that is merely a step away from being fully weapons-grade, sufficient for approximately ten bombs – remains intact?
It is believed that this material may be concealed deep within secret mines. While Israel may have eliminated some nuclear scientists, no bomb can obliterate Iran's knowledge and expertise.
What if Israel's assault leads Iran's leadership to conclude that the only viable means of deterring future attacks is to expedite its pursuit of nuclear capability?
What if the new military leaders at the decision-making table are more aggressive and less cautious than their deceased predecessors?
At the very least, this scenario could compel Israel to launch further attacks, potentially entangling the region in a continuous cycle of strikes and counter-strikes. Israelis refer to this strategy with a harsh term; they call it "mowing the grass."
There is a looming global economic crisis as the price of oil continues to surge.
What if Iran attempted to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, further limiting oil transportation?
What if, on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula, the Houthis in Yemen intensified their efforts to assault shipping in the Red Sea? They remain Iran's last so-called proxy ally, known for their unpredictability and high-risk approach.
Numerous nations across the globe are currently experiencing a crisis related to the cost of living. An increase in oil prices would further exacerbate inflation within a global economic framework that is already straining under the pressures of Trump's tariff conflict.
Moreover, it is important to acknowledge that the individual who stands to gain from escalating oil prices is President Putin of Russia, who would consequently witness a significant influx of billions of dollars into the Kremlin to finance his military actions against Ukraine.
The fall of Iran's regime creates a power vacuum.
What if Israel were to achieve its long-term objective of instigating the downfall of the Islamic revolutionary regime in Iran?
Netanyahu asserts that his foremost goal is to dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities. However, he clarified in his recent statement that his wider ambition encompasses regime change.
He addressed "the proud people of Iran," stating that his assault was "clearing the path for you to attain your freedom" from what he described as their "malevolent and oppressive regime."
Toppling Iran's government may be appealing to certain factions in the region, particularly among some Israelis. Yet, what kind of vacuum would this create? What unforeseen repercussions might arise? What would civil unrest in Iran entail?
Many recall the outcomes in both Iraq and Libya following the dismantling of a strong centralized government.
Thus, much hinges on the evolution of this conflict in the forthcoming days.
How - and to what extent - will Iran respond? And what level of restraint – if any – can the United States impose on Israel?
The resolution to these two inquiries will significantly influence the situation.